The following metrics are sourced from truck driver recruiting campaigns managed by Randall Reilly. Recent trends are detailed below in an effort to review driver employment activity.
In the past 12 months, the network of unique driver recruiting landing pages maintained by Randall Reilly has been visited by over 6.1 million users. Over 5.1 million users visited using a mobile device, over 800k visited using a computer, and over 125k visited using a tablet.
For Driver Recruiting campaigns managed by Randall Reilly:
- Drivers submitted more than 1 million unique leads to 855 different clients through Randall-Reilly advertising campaigns.
- 305k unique driver contacts submitted 537k unique short forms to various fleets.
- 354k unique driver callers made 488k unique call leads to fleets
Summary:1
Trucking conditions continue to be favorable for carriers despite a recent spike in diesel prices. Projections for the rest of 2022 continue to be advantageous for carriers, but the expectation is that the conditions will slowly become a bit less favorable as we progress through the year.
January’s overall average cost per lead (CPL) dropped 11% month-over-month (MoM) to its second lowest level since last March (only August’s was lower). Through the first half of February[1], average CPL is on pace to decline further, but historically the trend has been for lead costs to tick upwards in the back half of the month.
The drop in lead costs did not have much effect on January’s hire costs and hire rates since, on average, it takes about a month from initial lead to hire. Hire costs were at their highest level on record in December, so January’s minimal changes are disappointing since January has historically been thought to be one of the easier months to hire drivers. This signals that seating trucks will continue to be a struggle until competition for drivers eases.
The big drop in January CPL for company driver campaigns will likely have some effect on February’s CPH since many February hires will come from January leads. But February is missing some of the other advantages January enjoyed—such as the record number of job seekers and an extra Monday in the month—so expect CPH to rise some in February.
Click Cost Averages:
February click costs (CPC) for Search, Facebook, and Display are all on pace to rise some after large drops in January.
Search CPC continues to hover near the prior year’s costs. In the past few months, Facebook CPC has trended much closer to early 2021 costs after surging well above its year-over-year comparison for all of 2021.
Display CPC continues to be elevated, and while this indicates an increase in competition for these ad placements, it also reflects a strategy by the Randall Reilly digital marketing team to generate better quality clicks than to focus on click volume.
Cost Per Lead Averages:
January’s overall average cost per lead (CPL) dropped to its second lowest level since last March (only August’s was lower). Through the first half of February, overall average lead cost is on pace to be a bit lower than last month, but the trend has been for average lead costs to rise in the second half of the month. Therefore, expect February’s final overall average CPL to be higher than January’s.
All major driver types except for owner-operator saw double-digit CPL decreases in January. Through the first half of February, company driver CPL and student CPL is on pace to decrease further. Conversely, owner-operator CPL is on pace to rise a bit, while team CPL is on pace to spike back near December’s level.
Hire Costs & Rates:
Hire costs (CPH) and rates (LTH) both remained relatively near December’s metrics. This is disappointing since January is thought to be one of the best months for hiring drivers, and it shows that despite more people being interested in finding a driving job, it is still very difficult to seat a truck.
Company driver average CPH dropped 6% despite a slight rise in LTH, indicating that the drop in CPL helped deflate CPH by a bit.
The average owner-operator CPH and LTH both ticked up. The hire ratio on owner-operator campaigns in January rose to its highest level since April 2020. This indicates that it is now much harder to partner with an owner-operator than it was just a few months ago.
The big drop in January CPL for company driver campaigns will likely have some effect on February’s CPH since many February hires will come from January leads (on average it takes about a month for a lead to be hired). But February is missing some of the other advantages January enjoyed—such as the record number of job seekers and an extra Monday in the month—so expect CPH to rise some in February.
Other Digital Trends:
Through the first half of February, the number of users on recruiting landing pages and multi-carrier applicants are close to their January numbers. While users are spending the same amount of time on the pages as last month, they are converting less frequently. This could indicate that drivers are again becoming more selective in who they apply to.
External Market Trends:
In January, the number of job seekers for trucking jobs surged to its highest level on record, and the number of trucking jobs posted rose to the highest level since last March. The ratio of job seekers to jobs rose to its highest level since July 2020 but remains well below pre-pandemic levels. Comparing January 2022 to January 2021, there were 19% more people searching for driving jobs (+313,000), but there were 122% more jobs available (+225,000) for these searchers.
Market Information:2
Trucking conditions continue to be favorable for carriers despite a recent spike in diesel prices. Projections for the rest of 2022 continue to be advantageous for carriers, but the expectation is that the conditions will slowly become a bit less favorable as we progress through the year.
FTR’s outlook for truckload freight rates is marginally weaker than their prior forecast; this is their first downward revision in more than a year. Rates were estimated to have increased 19.2% in 2021, and FTR expects rates in 2022 to increase 2.4% YoY, excluding fuel. They expect spot rates to decline 2.7% YoY, while they forecast contract rates to increase 5.6% YoY. Looking at just Q1, FreightWaves expects spot rates to decrease between 8% and 12% from the end of the year, and they forecast contract rates to stabilize at record highs. They note that rates usually drop during Q1, so their Q1 forecast does not necessarily contradict FTR’s yearlong forecast.
Freight volumes continue to remain strong and are expected to grow in both 2022 and 2023. After a 5.1% increase in truck loadings in 2021 from 2020, FTR expects a 3.8% increase in 2022 compared to 2021, and they are projecting a 3.3% increase in 2023 from 2022.
FTR expects the biggest increases will come from tanker loads and bulk/dump loads because of increases in hauling chemicals and building materials.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revision of Truck Transportation employment indicates that trucking companies now employ over 26,000 more people than they did two years ago.[3] Their data further shows that drivers have heavily shifted to companies that offer local routes; further providing evidence that hiring drivers for OTR positions remains difficult. BLS’s numbers do not count owner-operators, so the surge of drivers working under their own authority are not included in the 26,000 increase. When factoring these drivers in, the number of current truck drivers is well above pre-pandemic numbers.
Active truck utilization has stabilized near 98%. FTR expects active truck utilization to remain above 96% through 2023 due to strong freight demand and slow truck production. A steady decline in utilization as seen from mid-2018 through mid-2019 is unlikely unless there is an economic shock that sharply reduces freight volume.
Truck production increased 53% in in December as OEMs finished up many previous semi-completed units, but build rates were expected to have dropped in January. For trucks ordered in December, the estimated average time from order to delivery fell to 9.3 months, but this number is skewed by the large number of previously semi-completed units that were able to be finished. Expect the average order-to-delivery time to increase back near 13 months in Q1.
[1] All of February’s stats are taken from campaign performance from February 1 to 15.
[2] The two-year comparison is given to compare to pre-pandemic employment numbers.
[3] Market information taken from:
FrieghtWaves FreightIntel Research. “Q1 Shipper Rate Report.” Feb 2022, FreightWaves.
FTR. “Trucking Update: February 2022.” 31 Jan 2022, FTR.
Miller, Jason. “Change in Employment for Truck Transportation Sectors.” 8 Feb 2022, LinkedIn.
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February Driver Recruiting Trends Report.
