March 2022 – Driver Recruiting Trends

The following metrics are sourced from truck driver recruiting campaigns managed by Randall Reilly. Recent trends are detailed below in an effort to review driver employment activity.

In the past 12 months, the network of unique driver recruiting landing pages maintained by Randall Reilly has been visited by over 6.1 million users. Over 5.1 million users visited using a mobile device, over 800k visited using a computer, and over 125k visited using a tablet.

For Driver Recruiting campaigns managed by Randall Reilly, in the past 12 months.

Drivers submitted more than 1 million unique leads to 960 different clients through Randall-Reilly advertising campaigns.
316k unique driver contacts submitted 553k unique short forms to various fleets.
357k unique driver callers made 493k unique call leads to fleets.

Summary

While record-high diesel fuel prices and a drop in van segments’ spot rates have dampened the near-term freight outlook, overall trucking conditions continue to be favorable for carriers. Projections for the rest of 2022 continue to be advantageous for carriers, but the war between Russia and Ukraine and inflation concerns in the US have added more uncertainty to these projections.

February’s overall average cost per lead (CPL) increased 5% from January. Through the first 20 days of March,[1] overall average lead cost is on pace to decline. While lead costs will likely tick upwards in the last week of the month, expect the overall average CPL to remain lower February’s CPL.

Preliminary data shows that Company Driver hire costs (CPH) in February rose 7% from January, while Owner-Operator CPH spiked to its highest cost on record. It is important to note that some of February’s increase is the result of the month having one fewer Monday than January. Since many companies start orientations on Mondays, most hires are attributed to a Monday.

The preliminary data shows the hire ratio on Owner-Operator campaigns in February rose to its highest level since April 2020.

[1] March’s lead and hire stats are taken from campaign performance from March 1 to 20; all other March stats are taken from campaign performance from March 1 to 15.

Click Cost Averages

March click costs (CPC) for Search, Facebook, and Display are all on pace to decrease from February’s costs.

Since Search ad placements are determined by a searcher’s keywords, a lower CPC may indicate that there are more searches for driver jobs (increased supply), so the average cost is down. There has been a record number of both people searching for truck driver jobs on job boards and different companies hiring truck drivers (see ‘External Market Trends’), so both supply and demand appear to have increased, but the overall effect has been a decrease in CPC.

Drops in click costs on Facebook and Display suggest that competition for ad placements is likely declining. These channels compete for ad space across many different industries and ad types (including retail), so their declining costs are likely caused by less competition from other industries instead of from within driver recruiting.

Cost Per Lead Averages

February’s overall average cost per lead (CPL) increased 5% from January. Through the first 20 days of March, overall average lead cost is on pace to decline. While lead costs will likely tick upwards in the last week of the month, expect the overall average CPL to remain lower than February’s CPL.

Company Driver (solos) and Team campaigns are both on pace to see lead costs decrease in March; Student campaign costs are flat, and Owner-Operator campaigns are seeing an increase in lead costs.

Hire Costs & Rates

Company Driver CPH’s rise is mainly caused by February’s CPL rise since the hire rate (LTH) remained the same as January’s rate.

Preliminary data indicates that Owner-Operator CPH and LTH both rose considerably in February. The hire ratio on Owner-Operator campaigns in February rose to its highest level since April 2020. This indicates that it is now much harder to partner with an Owner-Operator than it was just a few months ago. The increase in Owner-Operator lead costs in March, as other driver types are decreasing, suggests that partnering with independent drivers will likely continue to be difficult. The spike in diesel prices is a wild card at this point: it may cause Owner-Operators to partner with companies to guarantee loads, or it may cause a number of them to become Company Drivers so they do not need to worry about fuel costs.

Last month’s report noted that the preliminary CPH data for January was disappointing since costs remained relatively near December’s metrics, and January is thought to be one of the best months for hiring drivers. By now more data has been gathered, and January CPH ended up decreasing from December by 23% for Company Drivers and 16% for Owner-Operators.

Other Digital Trends

Through the first half of March, there are more users visiting Randall Reilly recruiting landing pages, and they are converting more frequently than they were in February. These both indicate that interest in driver jobs is up in March.

External Market Trends

In February, the number of job seekers for trucking jobs ticked upwards and was again at its highest level on record. The number of trucking jobs posted rose as well and is at its highest level since last March. More significantly, the number of different companies posting driving jobs jumped by nearly 6,500 from January and is at its highest point on record. As a result, the competition for hiring drivers remains very high.

Comparing February 2022 to February 2020 (for a pre-pandemic comparison), there were 46% more people searching for driving jobs (+610,000), while there were 123% more jobs available (+229,500) for these searchers.

Market Information^{^[1]}

FTR’s latest outlook for truckload freight rates is stronger than their prior forecast. FTR expects rates in 2022 to increase 3.2% YoY, excluding fuel. They expect spot rates to decline 1.6% YoY, while they forecast contract rates to increase 6.2% YoY. However, in the weeks since FTR published their latest outlook, spot rates excluding fuel—especially for van segments—have dropped quite a bit and may affect next month’s forecast.

FTR expects freight volumes continue to remain strong and are expected to grow in both 2022 and 2023. They predict a 4.3% increase in 2022 compared to 2021, and they are projecting a 3.1% increase in 2023 from 2022. Indications are that manufacturing will increase, but some sources expect retail sales will drop YoY in 2022 to potentially offset the gains from manufacturing. Additionally, recent indicators suggest that dry van capacity is loosening, and the market may have peaked.

The share of seated trucks engaged in hauling freight is still above 97%. FTR expects active truck utilization to remain at or above 97% through 2022 and exceed 96% through 2023 due to strong freight demand and slow truck production. They do note that risks remain that could cause the number to drop.

Truck production decreased 12% in January, but that decrease is overstated from to December’s high total as OEMs finished up many semi-completed units before the end of the year. As a result, the production drop was smaller than expected. Expect build numbers to stabilize soon. For trucks ordered in January, the estimated average lead time from order to delivery was 10.4 months, but this number remains skewed by the semi-completed units that were finished and by OEMs limiting orders to manage backlogs.

^[1] Market information taken from:

FTR. “State of Freight Insights, Weekly Update – 2022-03-18.” 18 Mar 2022, FTR.

FTR. “Trucking Update: March 2022.” 28 Feb 2022, FTR.

Miller, Jason. Multiple LinkedIn postings. Mar 2022, LinkedIn.

Truckstop & FTR. “Spot Market Insights, March 23, 2022.” 21 Mar 2022, FTR.