The following metrics are sourced from truck driver recruiting campaigns managed by Randall-Reilly. Recent trends are detailed below in an effort to review driver employment activity.
In the past 12 months, the network of unique Driver Recruiting Landing Pages maintained by Randall-Reilly were visited by over 3.3 million users. Over 2.5 million unique users visited using a mobile device, over 600k visited using a computer, and over 90k visited using a tablet.
For Driver Recruiting campaigns managed by Randall-Reilly:
- Drivers submitted over 879k unique leads to 962 different clients through Randall-Reilly advertising campaigns.
- 242k unique driver contacts submitted 445k unique forms to various fleets.
- 316k unique driver callers made 434k unique call leads to fleets
Summary
Though the first half of March looked favorable with lead costs (CPL) on pace to decline for the first time in a year, several factors came into play that negatively affected campaigns and drove CPL increases. Among these were most notably the extension of unemployment benefits and stimulus payments.
- March CPL increased 8% month-over-month (MoM) to set a record high.
- April[1] CPL is on pace to increase an additional 15% from March.
- One positive is that average CPL for student campaigns is on pace to decrease in April. This could indicate that more people are considering becoming a truck driver when driving schools increase capacity in the coming months.
Though CPLs have been increasing rapidly, average hire costs (CPH), while high, have not been rising at the same proportion due to very good hire rates.
- Company driver average CPH rose 3% in March and is lower than December and January average CPH.
- Owner-operator average CPH fell by 17% MoM.
Be aware that the very high CPLs of the second half of March and the first half of April have yet to really have an influence on CPH. Average lead velocity indicates that April and May’s CPH will be affected by the fewer leads generated. Prepare for CPH to rise in these months unless LTH improves significantly from the already very good current rates.
[1] April stats are taken from campaign performance between April 1 and 15.
Click Cost Averages
Click costs (CPC) are trending upwards through March and the first half of April. Search CPC is on pace to be at its highest level since November, while Facebook and Display are on pace to have their highest costs on record.
Click through rates (CTR) are low for Search and Display, suggesting that drivers currently have less intent to find jobs on these platforms than they have in the past. Conversely, Facebook’s CTR is trending upwards in March and April, suggesting that increases in CPC are the result of increased competition for ad space.
Cost-Per-Lead Averages
The last half of March and the first half of April saw very high costs per lead (CPL). March set the record for the highest CPL on record, and April’s CPL is on pace to increase 15% MoM.
Through the first half of March, CPL was on pace to decline for the first time in nearly a year. We noted, however, that the recently passed stimulus package seemed to be negatively affecting campaigns. Since that point, the overall CPL average increased by about 30% from the first half of March. While it is difficult to isolate all potential reasons for the increase in CPL, the extension of unemployment benefits and the stimulus payments likely reduced the urgency for drivers to reenter the job market or find a new job.
All driver types except for Students are on pace to have a double-digit CPL increase in April from March and to have their highest average CPL on record. Student campaigns’ average CPL is on pace to decrease from last month, but it would still be the second-highest number on record. The decrease, though, could indicate that an increased number of people are considering becoming a truck driver when driving schools increase capacity in the coming months.
Please be aware that year-over-year comparisons are not very useful currently. During the early stages of the pandemic, average CPLs fell to their lowest levels on record before increasing steadily through the summer and autumn.
Hire Costs & Rates
Though CPLs have been increasing rapidly, average hire costs (CPH), while high, have not been rising at the same proportion. Company Driver average CPH rose 3% in March, while Owner-operator average CPH fell 17%. Very good hire rates (LTH) have kept CPHs from spiking.
The very high CPLs of the second half of March (and April) have yet to really have an influence on CPH. Average lead velocity indicates that April and May’s average CPH will be affected by the fewer leads generated. Prepare for CPH to rise in these months unless LTH improves significantly from the already very good current rates.
Other Digital Trends
Landing page users, average session duration, and MCA applicant count all indicate that there is a lower interest in finding standard driving jobs than last month.
The conversion rate on landing pages maintained by Randall-Reilly has increased in April. Since this metric is moving contrary to nearly all other metrics, it is likely the improvement is the result of either better user experience on the landing pages or increased driver intent for certain (likely high paying) jobs.
External Market Trends
Truck driving jobs posted on job boards fell by 15% MoM in March. This indicates a lower level of competition for drivers seeking a new job than in the past few months, but the number of jobs posted remains very high when compared to any time period before December 2020.
Meanwhile, the number of drivers fell by 6.6K MoM, increasing the number of job seekers per job to its highest level since November. Despite the improvement in this ratio, these numbers yet again explain how carriers are having difficulty filling open seats. In March 2021 there were nearly 245,000 more job postings for truck drivers than in March 2020, but there were only 16,000 more drivers searching for these jobs.
Market Information
The trucking outlook for 2021 continues to be very strong and may be stronger for longer than previously predicted. FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index expects conditions to be very favorable until this fall and to have a continual positive outlook through 2022. A faster than anticipated return of driver capacity is likely the greatest risk to this extended positive outlook, but even that development would likely have little effect before Q4.
The strong market conditions are driven by robust demand both from the consumer and industrial sectors combined with labor-related challenges that are keeping a lid on capacity. Consumer spending was up in March from already elevated levels, which will further deplete inventory levels, requiring a longer restocking period.
Tight driver capacity is causing FTR to predict that active truck utilization[1] will be at 100% through Q3, and the market will remain tight (above 95% utilization) through 2022.
[1] Active truck utilization calculates the percentage of the population of active trucks that is required to move the U.S. truck freight.
It isn’t all good news for carriers, though. Driver recruiting remains difficult and is unlikely to change in the near term. The extra loads needed to keep up with the increase in retail purchases keep drivers busy, which limits their ability and desire to search for a new job. In order to fill seats, many carriers are raising pay—by as much as 20% in some cases. Additionally, insurance costs have taken a leap as a percentage of revenue, and maintenance costs are up 11%. As Class 8 truck orders are delayed due to semiconductor shortages and general backlogs, trucks will reach higher mileages and need more maintenance before their replacements are delivered.
Long-haul trucking is especially feeling the crunch of the driver shortage. Overall, truck transportation employment is down 2.9% from January 2020, but general freight long distance TL employment is down 3.7%. Indications suggest many of these drivers are moving to other industries or to jobs with local routes. General freight local trucking employment is the only trucking segment that has seen an increase in employment compared to January 2020.
Drivers are realizing that local and final-mile delivery jobs allow for more flexibility, offer greater home time, and often have fixed or guaranteed pay. The explosion of e-commerce in the past year—and the expectation that more than half of consumers will continue to integrate online shopping into their post-Covid lives—suggests that there will need to be a large increase in local and final-mile delivery drivers in the coming years, and this makes these jobs even more appealing for drivers.
[1] Market information taken from:
CCJ Staff. “Trucking conditions hit highest mark in more than a year.” 13 Apr 2021, ccjditital.com.
FTR. “Trucking Update: April 2021.” 31 Mar 2021, FTR.
Miller, Jason. LinkedIn postings (multiple). Apr 2021, Michigan State University.
Sharkey, Grace. “More long-haul drivers eyeing final mile.” 16 Apr 2021, freightwaves.com.
Strickland, Zach. “Freight boom is not without downsides for carriers.” 17 Apr 2021, freightwaves.com.
[3] Active truck utilization calculates the percentage of the population of active trucks that is required to move the U.S. truck freight.
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