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Monthly Driver Recruiting Trends for July 2022

The following metrics are sourced from truck driver recruiting campaigns managed by Randall Reilly. Recent trends are detailed below in an effort to review driver employment activity.

In the past 12 months, the network of unique driver recruiting landing pages maintained by Randall Reilly has been visited by 6.9 million users. Over 5.9 million users visited using a mobile device, over 850k visited using a computer, and over 130k visited using a tablet.

For Driver Recruiting campaigns managed by Randall Reilly, in the past 12 months:

  • Drivers submitted 1.16 million unique leads to 888 different clients through Randall Reilly advertising campaigns. 
    • 362k unique driver contacts submitted 631k unique short forms to fleets
    • 385k unique driver callers made 533k unique call leads to fleets

Summary

Multiple data points show many drivers are interested in finding new driving jobs. A record number of people searched for truck driver jobs in June on Indeed, multicarrier applications have spiked in July, click costs are declining, and conversion rates are improving.

These factors are causing lead costs to drop to levels not seen since January 2021:

  • Overall average cost per lead fell 3% in June.
  • Through the first half of July, [1] the overall average cost per lead has decreased by 7%.

Preliminary hire data for June shows that average Company Driver hire costs (CPH) are unchanged from May. Average Owner-Operator hire costs rose by 14%, mainly caused by an increase in the lead-to-hire ratio.

Expect for hire costs to increase in July. July 4th fell on a Monday this year, so there are only three non-holiday Mondays in July. Since the majority of fleets start orientation on Mondays, a higher percentage of drivers who agree to drive for a fleet in July will likely be officially hired in August.

High fuel prices, combined with broad economic headwinds including inflation and a softening economy, caused FTR to drop their Trucking Conditions Index to neutral conditions in May. They expect trucking conditions to improve in the near term as fuel costs stabilize, but they acknowledge that downside risks remain high.

Click Cost Averages

Click costs (CPC) are on pace to fall slightly in July on Search platforms, Display platforms, and Facebook.

Search’s CPC trend is remaining about 10% lower than a year ago. After months of closely following last year’s trendline, Facebook’s CPC is on pace to dip below last July’s number. Display’s CPC trend remains far above last year’s trendline.

Search CPC Chart July 2022
Facebook CPC Chart, July 2022
Facebook CPC Chart July 2022
Display CPC Chart, July 2022
Display CPC Chart July 2022

Cost Per Lead Averages

June’s overall average cost per lead (CPL) fell to its lowest point since January 2021. Through the first seventeen days of July, the overall average lead cost is on pace to drop even further.

All tracked driver types are on pace to decrease. Team campaign lead costs are on pace to have the largest percentage decrease (17%), while Owner-operator campaigns are seeing the smallest change (3%).

Student campaigns are on pace to have their lowest average CPL on record (which go back to March 2019), while Team campaigns are on pace for their lowest CPL average since July 2020.

Overall Recruiting CPL Averages Chart, July 2022
Overall Recruiting CPL Averages Chart July 2022
Company Driver CPL Averages Chart, July 2022
Company Driver CPL Averages Chart July 2022
Company Driver CPL Averages Chart, July 2022
Owner Operator CPL Averages Chart July 2022
Team CPL Averages Chart, July 2022
Team CPL Averages Chart July 2022
Student CPL Averages Chart, July 2022
Student CPL Averages Chart July 2022

Hire Costs & Rates

Preliminary data shows that average Company Driver hire costs (CPH) are unchanged in June from May. The average lead-to-hire ratio (LTH) has remained very steady over the past three months.

Owner-Operator hire costs continue to yo-yo. Preliminary June hire data shows a 14% increase in CPH, mainly caused by an increase in LTH.

Expect for hire costs to increase in July. The 4th fell on a Monday this year, so there are only three non-holiday Mondays in July. Since the majority of fleets start orientation on Mondays, a higher percentage of drivers who agree to drive for a fleet in July will likely be officially hired in August.

Company Driver CPL Averages Chart, July 2022
Company Driver CPL Averages Chart July 2022
Company Driver Hire Ratio Chart, July 2022
Company Driver Hire Ratio Chart July 2022
Owner-Operator Average CPH Chart, July 2022
Owner Operator Average CPH Chart July 2022
Owner-Operator Hire Ratio Chart, July 2022
Owner Operator Hire Ratio Chart July 2022

Other Digital Trends

Multicarrier applications have spiked in the first half of July. While this likely shows increased interest from drivers, ongoing optimization efforts by the MCA team at Randall Reilly have had a large impact on this month’s increased applicant count.

There has been a slight decrease in the number of people coming to Randall Reilly-built recruiting landing pages, but the decline is due to a slightly smaller budget rather than decreased driver interest. Once on the recruiting web pages, drivers are spending a bit less time on the page but are converting at a slightly better rate. July’s conversion rate is at its highest point since August 2020.

Other Digital Trends Charts, July 2022: MCA Applicants, Landing Page Users, Conversion Rate, and Avg. Session Duration
Other Digital Trends Charts July 2022 MCA Applicants Landing Page Users Conversion Rate and Avg Session Duration

External Market Trends

In June, the number of job seekers for trucking jobs rose by 11% from May to the highest number on record. The number of job postings rose by 4%, so competition for drivers decreased by 7% in June.

Comparing June 2022 to June 2019 (for a pre-pandemic comparison), this past month there were 56% more people searching for driving jobs (+794,000), while there were 138% more jobs available (+261,000) for these searchers.

Truck Driver Job Seekers per Job Chart, July 2022
Truck Driver Job Seekers per Job Chart July 2022
External Market Trends Charts, July 2022: Truck Driver Jobs Posted, Truck Driver Job Seekers
External Market Trends Charts July 2022 Truck Driver Jobs Posted Truck Driver Job Seekers

Market Information[2]

High fuel prices, combined with broad economic headwinds including inflation and a softening economy, caused FTR to drop their Trucking Conditions Index to neutral conditions in May. They expect trucking conditions to improve in the near term as fuel costs stabilize, but they acknowledge that downside risks remain high.

FTR’s latest outlook for truckload freight rates continues to soften due solely to a sharper-than-expected decline in spot rates. FTR expects rates in 2022 to increase by 2.8% YoY excluding fuel, down from 3.5%. Spot rates are expected to fall 7.4%, down from -5.5%, while the forecast for contract rates remains +9.2% YoY. The downward adjustments were sharpest in the dry van and refrigerated segments. FTR’s latest outlook for truckload freight rates is weaker than its prior forecast, mainly due to expected decreases in construction and automotive loadings. They predict a 3.6% increase in 2022 compared to 2021, down from 4.2% previously. They are projecting a 2.4% increase in 2023 from 2022, down a bit from +2.5% last month.

Largest Two-Month Gain Chart, July 2022
Largest Two Month Gain Chart July 2022

Truck transportation employment has been surging in recent months, and for-hire trucking employment is now at a record level (65,900, or 4.3%, above February 2020 numbers). This surge in hiring implies not only that demand for drivers remains strong but also that it is likely that many owner-operators are becoming company drivers again. (Truck transportation employment numbers do not include independent contractors.) Data is beginning to show that many trucking companies are starting to go out of business. Many of these are likely owner-operators who are becoming employed company drivers.

The surge in hiring, along with gains in driver and equipment productivity, has weakened active truck utilization. The share of seated trucks engaged in hauling freight is about 96%, and FTR expects active truck utilization to bottom out at or around 94% by year-end.

Truck production increased by 2% in May as build rates remain slow and choppy. For trucks ordered in May, the estimated average lead time from order to delivery was 10.1 months. Demand for trucks continues to exceed supply greatly.


[1]  July’s lead and hire stats are taken from campaign performance from July 1 to 17; all others are taken from July 1 to 15.

[2] Market information is taken from:

FTR. “Trucking Update: July 2022.” 30 Jun 2022, FTR.

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Driver Recruiting Trends July 2022
Driver Recruiting Trends July 2022